From the category archives:

Local Interest

Fall out

by Kris Berg on August 5, 2008

I got a little suspicous when I first posted this Altos chart showing the Market Action Index (less than 30 suggests a buyer’s market, duh) and weekly absorption (homes opening escrow) for Scripps Ranch. Specifically, this data shows Scripps Ranch detached homes going into escrow at a clip of approximately 8 to 10 per week, yet I know that we aren’t closing 40 homes a month.

My own experience tells me why we are seeing a discrepancy; more homes are failing to close once under contract or, as we more commonly say, falling out of escrow.

This morning I took a quick peek into the statistics, courtesy of the Sandicor Multiple Listing Service. I looked at both homes which successfully recorded in July and homes currently in escrow to see how many of these had experienced previous failed attempts.

On the one hand, I expected the data to be worse (more “fallout”). On the other hand, if you have found yourself in that smaller slice of the pie, it’s pretty bad. And, from purely the agent’s perspective, you can imagine how much we love doing everything twice. Again based on my experience, this is partially due to buyer cold feet in an uncertain market but mostly due to the difficulty in obtaining financing in a market where the rules of underwriting are changing as often as a new mother of twins. In recent times, up until about a year ago, failed sales were quite the unexpectedly anomaly. Today, it is important to remember that your home is not truly sold until the Fat Lady gets her County tax stamp.

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I need people.
I spent much of yesterday with my head buried in statistics and faced with an ongoing technical dilemma. Admittedly, this kind of work is not very sexy, but then I don’t have “people.” (And, I mean no offense to Cyber-Steve, Master of the Crashed Hard Drive. He just has different skill sets.) Since the breached birth of our new MLS system in May, I have been struggling with a way to easily import market statistics given that they (the perpetrators of Tempo 5) robbed me of my right-click capabilities. So, I started Thursday morning on a mission to right the wrongs, the “wrongs” being my data living under lock and key and a website which has consequently been displaying very outdated real estate numbers for a couple of months.

Skip this part if embedding stuff in web sites doesn’t turn you on.
If you don’t care about the nuts and bolts of my solution, scroll down a paragraph or two; the braver may soldier on. My first thought was to import the data in PDF format. In response to my question of how to embed a PDF on my web site, my bloggy buddies on Twitter quickly responded with the Docstoc and Scribd solutions. These turned out to be the right answers to the wrong question. I quickly remembered that the MLS reports include too many fields which are of no value to my readers, plus they offer the added bonus of getting truncated about halfway across the page when printed to file.

The ease with which I can post and update statistics is of paramount importance. (See “I don’t have people” above.) For this reason, I have always loved the Altos charts for listing activity because, once embedded, they are perpetually updated, kind of like magic. If at some point, I get hit by a truck, or a burning brick for that matter, consumers will have the comfort of at least knowing what the median listing price is for homes in their community. So, my solution for providing homes sales data comes about as close to being magically self-sustaining and worry free as I can get it, with the help of EditGrid.

Here comes the cool part.
Using EditGrid, I created a spreadsheet of homes sold, thirty-days back, for each of six San Diego I-15 Corridor communities. I embedded the spreadsheets in our web site and now, future updates require simply that I update the data on the EditGrid site. This is an example of my handywork:

All of these statistics currently live under the Market Stats button on our web site. I intend to update the data every two weeks or so, which should be quite manageable. Time permitting, I also hope to branch out and add some coastal communities to our list. Maybe this isn’t quite as exciting as, say, doing a load of laundry, but it’s all I’ve got for the moment — until I get me some of those “people.”

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The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are out for May, and San Diego saw a 23.2% decline in prices year over year. That’s the bad news. The good news is that if you are looking to buy a home in Scripps Ranch, you now know who your management company will be.

It’s been quite a little project, but our interactive companion map to the table of Scripps Ranch Homeowners Associations (brought to you by EditGrid) is mostly complete. I say mostly, because I know of one subdivision for which we are missing information and another four which I somehow failed to include in the map, but at this point, finding the missing data is like a little game of “Where’s Waldo?”

This little labor of love was created using Google mapping. Ultimately, my goal is to include a photo for each subdivision. Of course, we have created a monster which we will have to continually update, but it beats the heck out of spending my time obsessing over those wacky Case-Shiller dudes.


View Larger Map

We have long been acquiring and posting floor plans on our web site for the various Scripps Ranch neighborhoods. Our newest creation represents our latest installment in our information overload series. This will permanently reside on our web site under the “Scripps Ranch ‘Hoods” tab, and now that we have more or less answered the question of who does or doesn’t pay Mello Roos, I am off to figure out what other useful neighborhood information I can provide that people don’t know they need or want.

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Thursday Morning Mello Roos Primer - Oh Boy!

by Kris Berg on June 19, 2008

Now that you are awake, I threaten to put you to sleep.

The San Diego Union Tribune had an article this morning about airlines promoting ala carte services as a way to stay afloat. In quoting the president of US Airways, J. Scott Kirby, they wrote:

Historically, all passengers paid for checking bags even when they did not bring luggage, because a charge for transporting them was built into the ticket price. Now, Kirby said, “those who want the infrastructure to check bags, will check bags; those that don’t, won’t pay for them.”

Yeah, right. And this statement, naturally, got me thinking about Mello Roos fees.

The “Mello,” as it is familiarly called, is a California thing. It was devised (in theory) to do to new home construction what Mr. Kirby says the airlines are doing to the cost of air travel. First, in case you were itching for a primer this morning, here is the back story.

In 1982, the Community Facilities District Act was approved by the State Legislature. The bill’s coauthors were Senator Henry Mello and Assemblyman Mike Roos — Get it? The impetus for the bill was our famous Proposition 13 which was enacted in 1979 and severly limited the amount of property tax revenues which our local governments had previously enjoyed. With tax revenues limited, revenues which could be earmarked for public improvement projects and new infrastructure, a new source of funds was needed.

In newly developing areas, it became the norm for cities to exact fees and infrastructure improvements from developers as a condition of project approval. In the case of residential development, higher fees and costs meant that the developers would pass these costs through to the home buyers in the form of higher prices on the homes themselves. The Mello allowed an alternative, wherein municipal bonds would be sold to raise the money for required public improvements and infrastructure, and the bond debt would be subsequently passed on to the new homeowners in the form of a Special Tax Lien on the property.

The theory, or propaganda, much like the theory being tossed about by the airline industry, was that rather than imputing the costs of improvements in the price of the home, home prices would be lower since the folks benefiting from the improvements would be funding these costs after purchase. It should come as no surprise that this didn’t happen.

Now, at least in our San Diego neck of the woods, Mello Roos is generally associated with newer development, so those wanting “new” have all but resigned themselves to the Mello Roos burden. Buyers still grumble, but the good news is that since the special tax is based on square footage and not price, homes built prior to the 2000 boom years saw enough appreciation to make the Mello somewhat palatable relative to the total tax bill. Many homes constructed more recently in San Diego County, however, carry a significant Mello burden. In some cases, the effect is to increase the tax rate (based on today’s prices) by as much as 60% or more.

Not all Mellos are created equal, of course. Some run for 15 years, some for 22 or more. Each Community Facilities District has its own rates and sunsets. “How long?” was a question we rarely got until recently, because the buyer just assumed it would be around as long as they would be around. Now that we have a few years under our belts in some of the earlier Mello neighborhoods, we get asked this more often. In Scripps Ranch Villages, for instance, we are told that our Mello Roos runs through 2020, so we can almost see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Finally, here are some of the things that the Mello pays for: Streets, sewer systems, and capital costs associated with police and fire services, schools, parks and libraries. If you aren’t in a Mello Roos district? Then, your city’s general fund gets the nod. The irony, of course, is we all benefit to some extent from the Mello-funded goodies, whether or not we live in a home subject to the special tax.

You can read up on the boring details here. The bottom line is that while the Mello Roos funds public improvements previously paid for by the developer (and passed through in the form of a higher price on the home), the distinction has been all but lost. Buyers would prefer to not have a Mello, but I rarely see a buyer who factors the tax into their offer price. Further, while appraisers in the early days found the Mello to be a consideration, it is all but ignored by appraisers today.

And no matter what Mr. Kirby says, we are all going to continue to pay for the baggage handling infrastructure. It is just that those of us with actual bags will now be paying a little more.

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Monday Morning Quick Hits

by Steve Berg on June 9, 2008

It’s a glorious Monday morning in San Diego and here’s what’s happening:

Quick Hit #1- Now that my Principal Partner and Chief Technology Officer, Kris, has had her brain fried by our new and exciting Tempo 5 MLS software, I should probably be thinking about a new career. Obviously our value to our clients was not foremost in the minds of the San Diego Association of Realtors (SDAR). So I’m thinking about going into the software biz myself. The fact that I am totally unqualified shouldn’t make a difference. I have found the perfect client - SDAR. If they bought the Tempo 5 piece of (insert favorite, colorful expletive), I’m certain they will buy just about anything I have to offer. I’m sure glad SDAR is here to better serve me.

Quick Hit #2 - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports this morning the Pending home sales took and unexpected jump in April, up a much greater than expected 8.3% in the West. Based upon the fact that Kris and I, along with our two Buyers Agents, John and Lisa, are currently working with a dozen active/serious buyers, I can’t say I’m surprised. Add to that the fact that we are actually short on inventory in the market areas and price segments within which these buyers have interest, and we may be getting closer to stabilization than many think.

Quick Hit #3- Scripps Ranch closed sales stats for May, 2008 showed mixed results. There were 26 closed escrows (If we can trust Tempo 5). This is down from May, 2007 when we had 31 closed escrows. However, it was also the fifth straight month of increasing sales in 92131. The average “sold” price was also up 6% from the previous month to $296 per foot, but still down approximately 10% from May, 2007.

Quick Hit #4- While our fearless leaders in Washington D.C. contemplate another big and creative (but totally worthless) incentive program for the many homeowners on the path to losing their homes (throw them another $600 check), maybe they should be thinking about real solutions. Instead of focusing on the Supply side, maybe they should attack the problem from the Demand side. How about the “Home Investment Act of 2008?”  Buy a home (Primary owner-occupied residence) over the next 24 months with a minimum 5% down payment and get a supplemental tax write-off of 10% of the purchase price, not to exceed $50,000,  taken pro rata  over the 3 tax years subsequent to the purchase. Driving demand will solve the supply-side problems, including the government sending out billions of $$ that are essentially worthless to solving the housing recession.  

Those are my thoughts this morning. I’ve got to go take Kris to therapy now (I will be forwarding the bill to SDAR). Hope everyone has a great week.

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Scripps Ranch Homeowners Associations

by Kris Berg on May 8, 2008

Okay, this is way-cool. My favorite geek, Drew Meyers, shared his latest tech toy on the mebeliGeek Estate Blog.

It wasn’t immediately obvious to me how I might apply the embeddable spreadsheet feature of Google’s EditGrid, but I have this primal need to try everything at least once. Drew, being the good company man he is, would much rather I share Zillow’s first quarter market report for San Diego. I just may do that soon, but today I will instead share a little project in which we have been knee-deep for the past month.

At a recent Scripps Ranch Community Planning Group meeting, the chair suggested that it would be nice to have a comprehensive list of homeowners associations (HOAs) and management companies for the many neighborhoods comprising Scripps Ranch. His thought was that in the event of future emergencies (think fires), a single go-to resource for contact information would be helpful. So, with the help of our underpaid (as in, “not paid”) high school intern, Jeremy Haywood, we set about compiling the information. The result is the following spreadsheet, presented in two pages. The first indicates whether or not each neighborhood has an HOA and/or Mello Roos assessment, and the second lists the HOA management companies and phone numbers.

We (that would be the “royal we,” think “Jeremy”) are almost finished mapping this information using GoogleMaps. Knowing that you are all now tingly with anticipation, rest assured we will be sharing the visual version of our spreadsheet when it is finished. In the meantime, I am off to think up something else I can put in an embeddable spreadsheet that is not Zillow’s first quarter market report. I just love messin’ with Drew.

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What’s a million bucks get you in San Diego?

by Kris Berg on April 28, 2008

million%20dollar%20bill
Creative Commons License photo credit: Simon Davison

What’s a million dollars get you in San Diego?

As I was out showing property yesterday to a client relocating from out of town, we spend more than a little time discussing how prices and values vary among communities. “Why is La Jolla more expensive than Del Mar?” she asked, noting that they are both coastal communities, both enjoy well-respected schools, and are each within striking distance of employment centers. After making all of the logical arguments, arguments not seeming all that logical to my friend riding shotgun, I had to resort to the “it just is” explanation.

So let’s assume you have $1 million burning a hole in your pocket. What can you buy in San Diego? First, it is important to remember that we used to routinely use the word “million” as in “they are asking a half-million.” Today, a half-million is five-hundred thousand, and a million is one-thousand thousand. A million bucks isn’t what it used to be.

For my purposes here, I took the last recorded sale from our Sandicor Multiple Listing Service (MLS) where the sale price was hovering around $1 million. I had hoped to compare this scenario to 2000 prices but, alas, our MLS does not include photos for this bygone era. Case-Shiller I’m not, but suffice it to say that your money went a lot farther back then.

And a couple more…

Fortunately, I am not burdened with this million-dollar decision. I have opted to spend my retirement account at the gas pump.

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