Overconfidence and Disconnect – San Diego Value Trends According to Zillow

by Kris Berg on November 13, 2008

Overconfidence and Disconnect – San Diego Value Trends According to Zillow

A few weeks ago, Zillow released their third quarter Homeowner Confidence Survey. The survey was conducted in October, well after the now-infamous financial meltdown, yet the “My home is special” syndrome still seems to afflict many. On the west coast, we were generally a little more realistic. While Zillow estimates that 85% of homes in the west declined in value, a mere 35% of surveyed homeowners felt their home had either held its value or increased in value.

Yesterday Zillow released their report on third quarter year-over-year home value index (Zindex) changes. For those new to these parts, I will repeat my belief that while their Zestimates are generally fairly silly (but getting better), their Zindexes are much better since they represent the median of the Zestimates.

Here is their 3rd quarter heat map for San Diego County:

If you prefer numbers and letters, here is the overall movement for the county:

These numbers roughly track what I see from our MLS data, as does the year over year decline in the Zestimate for Scripps Ranch (approximately 8 percent). I’ll spare you the boring details, but sorting their neighborhood spreadsheet by percentage decline, Ocean Beach was the only neighborhood that showed an increase, albeit minuscule, in home values, and all other coastal communities are hanging tough with the smallest value declines in the county. This goes back to the idea that until someone moves the big, blue wet thing, properties near the beach will always fair better than their inland cousins.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR  Kris Berg is Co-Owner and Designated Broker of San Diego Castles Realty. If not-so static web sites are your thing, go here at once where you will find loads of real estate information including homes for sale, market trends, floor plans and more. Kris's hobbies include fencing and spot welding. She likes kittens.


{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

JakobNo Gravatar November 13, 2008 at 10:05 am

Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the homes are above the median.

SvenNo Gravatar November 13, 2008 at 12:44 pm

Spider sense tingling: Kris is liking Zillow more and more.

Drew Meyers from ZillowNo Gravatar November 13, 2008 at 3:13 pm

Sven-
What’s not to like? :)

JakobNo Gravatar November 13, 2008 at 3:22 pm

Maybe big Z’s dropping of their brokerage license in CA has something to do with the new found love. :)

Leave a Comment

*
To prove you're a person (not a spam script), type the security word shown in the picture. Click on the picture to hear an audio file of the word.
Click to hear an audio file of the anti-spam word

Previous post: And the Best Reader Tip of the Week Award goes to…

Next post: Distress sale pies for the I-15 corridor – Not a pretty picture.