We aren’t quite to the end of the year, but we can see 2009 from here, so I thought it might be time to reassess where we have been and where we might be going.
The single, most frequently asked question we field concerns when we will see prices bottoming out and when we might get there. Until I can see a reversal in our current trend lines, I can’t say with any confidence that we are there yet.
I put together the following charts using information from the Sandicor Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The charts show annual median sales prices and sales volume over a ten-year period. Again, the data for 2008 is incomplete, but we are close enough.
My executive summary is this. Condos and single-family detached homes are following the same trend in our community, nearly mirror images. I was hoping to see some evidence from the condo activity that we are turning a corner (clinging to the old adage that so go the condos goes the market), but that wasn’t the case. Detached prices are back to early 2003 levels, while condos are back to late 2002/early 2003 pricing. Since the peak year of 2005, detached Scripps Ranch homes have given up approximately 20% of their value and attached homes approximately 25%.
With that, buckle your seat belts:
I will update these charts in January, when 2008 is but a memory and our final numbers are in. In the meantime, it is important to remember that we have some interesting dynamics at play, any or all of which could impact our housing market (or not). Among these are:
↔ A new Presidential administration
↑ Continuing Fed efforts to stop the bleeding
↑ An increased willingness within the lending community to restructure loans for troubled homeowners
? Wall street, jobs numbers and overall consumer sentiment
↓ Lower thresholds for non-conforming (Jumbo) loans
↑ Latent buyer demand
? Interest rates
So there you have it. We wait, we watch, but we do know that since 2003 at least, there has never been a better time to buy!! 
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Kris Berg is Co-Owner and Designated Broker of San Diego Castles Realty. If not-so static web sites are your thing, go here at once where you will find loads of real estate information including homes for sale, market trends, floor plans and more. Kris's hobbies include fencing and spot welding. She likes kittens. 
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{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
I like these charts much better than the Altos stuff. Way easier to comprehend!
Since 2005, volumes are down by about 60%, prices are down by about 20%. That means total Realtor commissions are down by almost 70% in Scripps Ranch since 2005. (.4*.8)
J – What a killjoy.
Let’s add a few more metrics such as:
Inventory – For 92131 existing inventory stands at only 4.4 months, technically a sellers market (although I am not claiming that).
Macro Trends – When compared to same period last year in California, rates of foreclosure are decelerating, pending home sales are way up.
Anecdotal Evidence – At least in the I-15 Corridor, the market for entry level detached homes (now approx. $300k – $500k) is on fire. Acknowledging that many of these homes are short sales or bank-owned, we are constantly running into multiple offers for many of these homes.
The bottom line (Pardon the not-so-good pun) – In order to hit bottom, we must first establish a base and it would appear that base is now in the process of being formed.
I’m with Jim when he says that $200/square foot is probably the bottom. That’s when one can financially justify buying instead of renting. Looks like we are headed there… The last cycle took 7 years to hit bottom too. We are 3 years into this one.
Agree with Jakob. We’ll be near the bottom when there’s minimal trade-off between buying and renting. If the typical condo in Scripps Ranch is at $290/sq.ft. there’s still a ways to go. $200-$240/sq.ft. looks about right to me. That’s 2001/2002 pricing on 2009/2010 rents, which are probably 30%-40% higher than they were in 2001, so that the price/rent ratio backs us up into the late-90s.
Sadly, it seems it still needs to get a little bit worse before it gets better.