please feel free to contact me if I can help with anything.

fbrick2011@yahoo.com

Thanks,
Fred

We have been warning agents about this for months on end. They simply would not listen! Now they get a quick lesson on reality.

We interviewed Jonathan Miller yesterday and it was amazing what he said about the valuation of homes in this market.

A realtor need not be caught by surprised in this market. They should expect the obvious.

Here in South Florida closed sales mean virtually nothing. We have actives WAY below previous closed and the regression analysis paints an entirely different picture.

One in a row for appraisers.

>Fred surprised all of us.

Fred,

>Indeed, hyperlink. You are a flexible professional, apparently not given to much hyperbole, and thoughtful in every way.

Hyperlink your name.

There are tons of SD originators who would appreciate an appraiser who openly discusses these topics. While we may not be able to choose you after Jan 1, It would be nice to get a cogent explanation when it doesn’t work out

You are demonstrably head and shoulders above your peers.

My comment about “we’ve been trying to do…” was probably construed as a defense of all appraisers… sorry about that one. I was referring to some of the analysis that some guys and myself do that is a little more flexible. Look, if the appraiser of Kris’s deal just applied a 1.5%/month negative time adjustment because that is what the overall rate is, and didn’t look beyond that, that’s taking a hard line.

Let’s say the overall rate of annual decline for attached housing in the Scripps Ranch area is 18%. There are lots of different ways to look at that. Let’s take attached homes that sold for $300K – $400K as a rung of pricing. If I run that through the regression analysis I mentioned, I come up with a declining rate of just over nine percent annually. If the closed sales and listings validate it, that’s what I would use as a rate of decline in time adjusting. Or maybe I would have to dig in farther into it………

I think we can all agree that most areas have some rate of decline going on at this time. And there are undoubtedly appraisers who don’t do enough analysis and just use some overall rate…… “ready, fire, aim!” afflicts every profession, right? If the appraiser applies the same level of decline to Encinitas Ranch that is going on in Village Park (both in 92024, but very different markets), that’s rigid.

What concerns me is the idea that seems to be circulating here that by observing the declining market, appraisers are contributing to the trend. “And if every appraisal used this declining market logic in determining value, how would our market or any market reverse course?” Appraisers just don’t have that kind of power. Did agents object when we used positive time adjustments to make purchase appraisal numbers work in 2004 and 2005? Did our use of them cause the market to keep going up farther than it should have? As soon as the market leveled off, appraisers generally quit applying positive adjustments…. and as different areas begin to stabilize out of this downturn, appraisals will reflect it (or should anyway)….. Uncle……