Very well said!

“… Unless you are Bill Gates or Warren Buffett, there is always going to be some feature you would have liked but didn’t get.”

If a home is otherwise perfect you won’t like the price so there is no such thing as a perfect home.

I have to agree. And remember the “slide mechanism” is out of sync across the United States and across the world. My market up here in Portland, Oregon is just beginning to collapse. We are maybe 18 months behind you in San Diego. So relocations are just not happening.

BTW, could you send up a little sunshine? We haven’t seen that yellow star since last November…

Jim the realtor had an interesting article on his blog. It seems that the heavy activity on REO’s (because they are usually “deals”) is actually slowing down how fast the banks can list their ever growing inventory of property. I guess that with every offer they receive, they need to do a certain amount of work related to it. There’s no official measurement anywhere that I can find of this, but it’s reasonable to say at this point that many banks are acquiring houses at a rate 2-3x faster then they can list them. So, we get a steady stream of REO’s to the market while a warehouse of them slowly fills up.

That constant stream of inventory entering the market will keep a heavy weight on prices at least for the next 2-3 years.

But what the heck is wrong with California Chardonnay. thankyouverymuch, and how about a stocked fridge full of Racer 5 IPA from Bear Republic??? Now that should fetch an extra something in the price point.

Sven – Good stock analogy as well. However, not every — in fact, not most people — purchase their primary residence as an investment tool. Let the broken record ensue… You may be entirely ROI oriented, and that is absolutely fine and even commendable, but the average family with children and gerbels and memorabilia in tow are looking at the home purchase as more of a long-term living arrangement. Homes provide shelter, they are boxes within which we make our lives, and they are not a simply a detached portfolio building mechanism.

Anticipation of future value… hmmm. If I am of your mind set (which, again, is OK for your circumstances), then I might be trying to impute tomorrow’s values in today’s purchase. But, if I want or need to buy today, I should expect to pay today’s prices. If I want or need to sell today, I would similarly be expectant of a sale price at today’s values, not some anticipated future value. This can play both ways, by the way.

Homes are many things to many people. For you, it is surely purely investment, and that is fine. For many others, it is much more, and that too is fine.

I’m just sayin’… If you want or expect to purchase a home today at 2010 values, then you are likely in for a wait, because there are many more people who are looking for a good home that is a good value today. I know you are a patient guy, but when you see your target decline finally realized, it has come at a price: Lost time in an ownership position, the lost tax write-off advantage, and lost months or years of enjoyment. And when the bottom does arrive, you are not going to be negotiating from nearly the position of strength that you are today.

I don’t think we really disagree. I just think there are two variations on the real property purchase theme. One iinvolves buying a house and the other buying a home.

With that, I’m am pooped. It is Chicken Fajita Night at Chez Berg, and it needs to be ready when Steve returns from showing homes to yet another stoopid buyer who wants to make a purchase in this market.

When you say restraint though, have you ever known us to get personal?

It’ll be a really great time to buy when prices start coming up year over year. Buying earlier than that is really “spending” money rather than “investing” money. (of course, everyone is entitled to make personal choices like that)

While we are finally beginning to wade through the sub-prime mess, we still have Alt-A, option ARMs, and HELOCs (oh my!) to deal with. Coupled with tightening debt markets, a negative savings rate for the average American, and highly leveraged toys (how is it that people that make 1/3 what I do drive a car 3 times more expensive than mine?), I believe that we will be several years more before aggregate prices begin to head north.

I’m no professional, but I don’t think one needs to be to see the handwriting on the wall. One need only look to Japan to see how bad loans can linger for decades, particularly if recovery is mismanaged by government (which is more likely than not, in my opinion). Granted, it’s not the identical situation, but I don’t think we are somehow immune to the sort of long downturn the Japanese faced.

In conclusion, buyers can afford to be picky. If they are like me, they are operating on the assumption that price increases will not happen in most markets for quite a while. What’s the rush? To continue your analogy, it’s not like Hell’s Bells is blaring from the speakers.