More importantly, and forgetting that your comment is confrontational and borderline hateful, if you reread this post, you will see that NOWHERE did I say we have found the bottom. Au contrare, if you go on to read the comments, I confess my opinion (which is just that – an opinion) that we still have a way to go.

Your comments are always welcome here and even appreciated so long as they are constructive and meaningful. To accuse me of “lying to sell a product” and of “hallucinating in a very public way” is neither.

I have always respected your right to your opinion here. Unless you can extend me the same courtesy, I will moderate.

Since you have called the bottom today and are obviously more optimistic than I am about price trends, I tell you what I will do. Sell me a futures contract for a house. I will sign today, but pay in Feb 2010. You can hold the deed until then and I will pay you the market price at the later date and rent in the mean time. If you are right that this is the bottom, then you will make money on the deal (rent plus cap. gains). If I am right that prices are PLUMMETING and that you are hallucinating in a very public way on the internet, I will make money.

If you believe what you are saying, then why not profit from it? If you are (in effect) lying to sell a product, well then welcome to sales, but don’t expect anyone but a fool to believe you.

Rational expectations

Yes, smartie, but you were in danger of missing the pregame show which, I believe, started on Friday. By the way, great game at the end, and I was happy to see the Giants win, even though Mr. Manning is a Charger-hater.

I will take the bearish remark as a compliment. Hopefully, if nothing else, we have a record of being honest and without propaganda here. By the way, I always enjoy your comments. You understand the market better than many agents I know.

As I stated previously I also think the high end will continue to hold up better than the low end, but I think it’s still in for a mini-beating. The data I’m seeing suggests that even the median high end coastal property is down from the peak in the high single digit percentages on a price/sq.ft. basis. I see that doubling over the next couple of years. Much better than the low end. But not exactly the “the high end won’t decline” mantra that I hear a lot of people spouting off about. Everything goes down in these post-bubble retrenchments – it’s just a matter of degree.

Your answer wasn’t wishy washy. It was uncharacteristically semi-bearish… particularly for a real estate agent.

I guess you aren’t watching the Super Bowl?

Absent the fine-tuned skills of Nostradamus, I can’t say with certainty, but another 15% doesn’t sound implausible. Kaye is right about pockets being less affected. I think you are off on La Jolla – I have been showing quite a bit there over the past six months, and I will tell you that their prices are holding pretty tight. You aren’t seeing the REO’s and shorts in that area (coastal in general) that you are in other areas of the county, which are clearly having some real impacts on pricing in some markets.

I absolutely agree with your “bouncing along the bottom” prediction once things settle down. The reverse trend will be slower and steadier this time around.

One thing I will say is that the activity among buyers seems to be picking up, and our inventory remains pretty low, so these are good signs that all-out carnage is not in the cards. I apologize if this is too wishy-washy an answer, but I am pretty steadfast in my opinion that 2008 and some of 2009 will be a continuation of downward pricing pressure.

Now, off to my pre-game mozzarella sticks. Yum!

There’s a piece over on Calculated Risk that mentions that 51% of all sales in SD County for January were either short sales or REO sales and that the percentage is climbing. This condition is unprecedented in the annals of the SD real estate market. How anyone can believe that we are not in for considerable further pricing declines across the board is absolutely beyond me.

That is correct – We are back to approximately March, 2003 pricing in most areas, with Summer of 2005 representing the peak. To roll back to 2000 pricing would take another approximate 50% value decline – Not happening. Even though he is talking National averages, he is still wrong.