The Six Month Solution - Our New Deal
The Declaration of Independence
If we had a dollar for every time… How many times have we said that? At the risk of compromising our street cred, this latest one is for real. Well, actually, it’s not the latest, as we have been hearing it for about twelve months running. We hear it when we are holding an open house, at the grocery store, at a school function and even at the gas station. We hear it from the prospective buyers. After asking us, “How long has it been on the market?”, ”Why are they moving?”, and “Is there going to be a price reduction soon?”, we inevitably hear the next declaration.
“I think I’ll just wait SIX MONTHS.”
A thoughtful explanation invariably ensues. “My (dentist, Uncle Phil, barber, therapist, insurance guy, mailman) says that in SIX MONTHS it will be the right time to buy.” Of course, these experts have it all over Jim Cramer from CNBC who, as our alert reader ”Rido” pointed out, identified next March as the bottom of the market and, therefore, “the time” to buy homes again. The Federal Reserve Board, most economists, and even the National Association of Realtors have yet different opinions, but what do they know? Naturally, the smart money is on Uncle Phil.
Six months, six months, six months… There are so many people waiting to make a home purchase, and all of these people seem to be zeroing in on a single day 182 1/2 days from now. You heard it here first: All hell is going to break loose.
The one thing we most need in this current market is certainty. Thankfully, we seem to have a quorum and a consensus. All seem to agree that the optimum buying time-frame is six months. The only remaining question is, “Six months from when?”
We the People
Somebody has to take a leadership role. So, we are here to bring sanity to the table. A moving target causes angst, it causes frustration and it results in undue stress and premature graying. Wishy-washy targets benefit no one. We need to establish the exact day on when it will be okay for the ever-growing gridlock of buyers to safely venture from the sidelines.
Therefore, let it be known that, in order to create a more perfect union, the time begins now. Six months from today is May 15, 2008. If the barber, the dentist, Uncle Phil, and other studied pundits in our collective spheres of influence are all correct, do you have any idea what will happen on this date? It will be chaos.
Society Without Government
The latent demand is just too enormous, and anarchy can get ugly. Remember the debut season of Tickle Me Elmo? Imagine, then, a day when throngs of home-seeking buyers take to the streets finally ready to call dibs on their favorite home (you know the one - “model-perfect”, “priced to sell” , “bring all offers”, “koi pond conveys”). And, then, they will proceed to beat the crap out of each other with their respective Zestimates. In order to avoid this impending doomsday scenario, we need to bring not just certaintly but order to the process.
Hail to the Chief
That’s why we propose May 15 as our newest National Holiday, “American Home Buying Day”. This way, we can all count on it and plan accordingly. Government agencies can coordinate traffic control and emergency personnel. Costs to the taxpayers can be offset by selling strategic advertising, such as “593 Shady Sunset Happy Place Lane brought to you by Jim’s Discount Tire and Mortgage.” Real estate agents will have lotteries to determine in which order their clients will get to see each home. “Number three-zero-six: Please report to “Lovingly Maintained 4BR Plus Bonus Room, Owner May Carry.” Thinking about it, this is so much better than the arbitrary way we do business now, just showing multiple and random homes, willy-nilly, over the course of months and months. Now, the conversation will be much different. Buyer: “Can we see the home this weekend?” Agent: “No, you’ll have to wait until American Home Buying Day. Take a number.”
America was made great by increasing efficiency which led to enhanced productivity. Eliminating all but one day a year to buy a home will do the same thing. It’s the six-month solution. We will fly our flag proudly, in the colors of Sienna Sand and Arizona White.
What a great country!
November 16th, 2007 at 8:53 am
I will have you know I am NOT your uncle !!
Phil
November 16th, 2007 at 9:01 am
A lot of humor and an element of truth. I recommend adding another national holiday: “American Home Financing Day.” My first choice would be April 15th, but unfortunately “Government Rape & Pillage” date is April 15th. Perhaps April 1st would work?
November 16th, 2007 at 9:46 am
Amen Sister, I’m in. Reminds me of The First of Octember
November 16th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
Kelly - I like your style!
November 16th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
In honor of said Homebuying Day, I hereby declare today, 11/16/2007 National 365 Day Listing Day! Be sure to beat the rush!
November 16th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
Dear Steve & Kris,
Thank you so much for the long extended vacation. My flight for the Bahamas leaves tomorrow. No worries, I promise to be back in the beginning of May, well rested, and ready to ramp up for the “Big Day”. I am so relieved to finally know when the six months actually is. This waiting has been worse than pregnancy………
Your Faithful Buyers Agent
Lisa
P.S. John, I think there are still flights available!
November 17th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Great idea, Thomas! Our service agents are standing by, and your call is very important to us.
Lisa - Glad we could help! See you in May.
November 17th, 2007 at 10:33 am
WOW that does free up some time!! I think I will stockpile listings with 9 month contracts! I will be SWAMPED come national buy a house day!!!!….:)
November 17th, 2007 at 10:37 am
I vote with Kelly. May is just a little too late in the spring buying season, so April would be much better. The 15th is out because it’s my birthday, and I never get any presents that day anyway. The first seems very appropriate, being April Fools’ Day. That seems like the best choice because it’s about half way between Ground Hog Day (celebrate dirt) and Mother’s Day (buy her a new kitchen!)
Your recommendation of the 15th of May would be a good date for all the new closings - that way the media can start reporting it, and we will have a new frenzy!
November 17th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
I just got back from the barber. He approves and advised me to mark it in the calendar.
November 17th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
The barber? Then it is a done deal! We shall be dancing around the May Pole.
November 18th, 2007 at 10:09 am
Brian - It just goes to show you that great minds, er, barbers think alike.
November 19th, 2007 at 11:01 am
I can’t believe this irresponsible “wait” attitude. If you are ever going to buy a house, do it now! It is ALWAYS a good time to buy real estate. ALWAYS! Real estate prices always go up. There is no better investment.
November 20th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
“Of course, these experts have it all over Jim Cramer from CNBC who, as our alert reader ”Rido” pointed out, identified next March as the bottom of the market and, therefore, “the time” to buy homes again. The Federal Reserve Board, most economists, and even the National Association of Realtors have yet different opinions, but what do they know? Naturally, the smart money is on Uncle Phil.”
In early 2007, Jim Cramer placed a strong buy on Countrywide home loans. The price at the time was about $42 a share. He said the whole subprime fiasco was overrated. Countrywide sells today for $9 a share. If you listened to him, you would have lost most of your money. He also put a buy on many homebuilder stocks at the same time. Note that now he is telling people to walk away from their homes if they lose more than 20% of their value.
In mid 2006, David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of realtors, called a “bottom” on the market citing a recent but very small uptick in volume. He also authored the book: ” Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust - And How You Can Profit from It: How to Build Wealth in Today’s Expanding Real Estate Market” The NAR finally canned him in 2007, but they are still calling false bottoms.
Maybe Uncle Phil’s opinion IS better.
November 21st, 2007 at 9:29 am
Sven - Or, at least, Uncle Phil may be no worse than the rest. I will reluctantly admit that I see your point.
December 9th, 2007 at 11:45 am
Kris, your writing is ART. I laughed out loud.
December 9th, 2007 at 7:10 pm
Russell - You’re a bit late to the game but I will excuse that. I will not excuse your singular compliment of Kris when, in fact, the essence of this post was pure “Steve”. Kris, of course put some polish on it but that was it. Hence, I allowed her picture at the top with me. I am overwhelmingly overshadowed by my very literary partner, so when I come up with a rare contribution I am very protective of it.
December 10th, 2007 at 6:26 am
“Pure Steve.” It sounds like someone is a little sensitive.
Don’t believe him, Russell. If you liked it, then I wrote it!
December 19th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
[…] 3. Buyers to come out of their caves and actually start buying homes…before May 15, which Kris Berg has declared “American Home Buying Day.” […]
February 15th, 2008 at 8:29 am
[…] According to the “Average rates and indexes” (Federal Reserve Statistical Release H-15, whatever that is) in the San Diego Union last Sunday, conforming loan rates last week were 5.51% w/1.2 points. Nonconforming loan rates were 6.53% w/1.2 points. It’s obvious that with an average savings of 1%, or more, many more buyers will be able to come off the sidelines, maybe just in time for American Homebuying Day. […]