Nothing says Happy Labor Day like a few market trend charts! As we all head back to school tomorrow in Scripps Ranch, I thought it would be valuable to take a quick glance at our notes on our local micro-market. These statistics are for single family homes in the 92131 zip code and are courtesy of Altos Research.
Here are the median listing price numbers by quartile, seven-day rolling average:
The lack of noticeable listing price decline suggested in this chart underscores the fact that sellers are still reluctant to accept the realities of our slowing and declining market. The market action index, which is a measure of market activity considering supply relative to demand, tells quite another story. Shown is the ninety-day rolling average.
Three of the four quartiles in this zip code are in the Buyer’s Market zone (Market Action Index below 30) with several month’s of inventory given the current levels of demand. Notice that Quartile 4 (the lowest priced group) is showing stronger demand than the others.
Where market times are concerned, all homes are (sort of) created equal, with average days on market for active listings in the 50 to 60 day range.
As for the inventory, it steadily climbs.
But this listing summary shows how little sales activity we saw in the past week.
We are just coming off the August buying doldrums, of course. We’ll check back in a week and see if things are looking any different. In the meantime, I will be back tomorrow to take a closer look at our actual sales, since listing statistics tell only half of the story.
Class dismissed.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Kris Berg is Co-Owner and Designated Broker of San Diego Castles Realty. If not-so static web sites are your thing, go here at once where you will find loads of real estate information including homes for sale, market trends, floor plans and more. Kris's hobbies include fencing and spot welding. She likes kittens. 
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{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }
At the risk of the “Wrath of Kris”, I am still not overwhelmed by the ALTOS charts, Quartiles, etc. You know me and I prefer the more simplistic approach as follows (per SANDICOR):
Detached Home Sales For 92131 (2006 vs. 2007, January thru August)-
# of Sales Avg. Price Avg. $ per foot
2006 – 222 $802,004 $347
2007 – 209 $801,285 $327
Difference -6% (push) -6%
Commentary: Not as Draconian as many people thought it would be. However, look to the last Quarter of this year to see if a bottom is forming or if there is more pain in store for the market next year.
Detached Home Sales for 92131 (8/06 vs. 8/07) -
# of Sales Avg. Price Avg $ per foot
8/06 25 $792,780 $339
8/07 26 $788,605 $324
Difference +4% -0.5% -5%
Commentary: Wow!! Who would have guessed that sales would increase this August from last year?? However, we will see more of the impact of the mortgage mess showing up in the September and October numbers. Year-over-year decline for the average sale price per foot is right where we predicted it to be earlier this year.
So far, it continues to look like a soft landing, in general. However, if you purchased a home over the past 2-3 years and overleveraged and/or bought into an interest only, negative amortization loan, this may be a very painful time.
I know, I know. Not very fancy, but pretty easy to read and understand.
>Not very fancy, but pretty easy to read and understand.
Standing on your head and assuming you don’t have a thing for columns and such.
Here’s a neat way of looking at the efficacy of charts versus lists versus whatever.
Take a picture of Jimmy Buffett. Look at it until it moves you.
Next, take the words from “Coconut Eelegraph” or any other Buffett song you like. Look at them until they move you.
Finally, fire up the CD or iPod, and ….”hear it on the Coconut Telegraph…..”. Listen and let me know how you are moved.
Only the music does it, doesn’t it?
So, what I want you two creative geniuses to do is take the “good” graphs, and the “good” lists, join with Russell Shaw, and write us some music that makes all this data ‘move’ us!!
Cookie idea??
Here’s a neat way of looking at the efficacy of charts versus lists versus whatever.
Take a picture of Jimmy Buffett. Look at it until it moves you.
Next, take the words from “Coconut Eelegraph” or any other Buffett song you like. Look at them until they move you.
Finally, fire up the CD or iPod, and ….”hear it on the Coconut Telegraph…..”. Listen and let me know how you are moved.
Only the music does it, doesn’t it?
So, what I want you two creative geniuses to do is take the “good” graphs, and the “good” lists, join with Russell Shaw, and write us some music that makes all this data ‘move’ us!!
Kookie idea??
Cookie and Kookie! I am all over it. (Dang – Another project).
Don – You want me to work this out with Kris? I’ll take that as a challenge…a BIG challenge. But I’m hearing your message, and it’s a good one. Now if I can just work it.
Okay, it’s enough that you’re both Realtors, but to be engaged in marital bliss at the same time, well that can cause a man and a woman to have to be creative at times!
Actually both of you hit a nerve with me, and I see you get my point with the music. I tend to be like you Steve, in that I can read, the numbers are straightforward, and they speak for themselves. While I think graphs can sometimes enlighten, particularly with respect to locations, they don’t illuminate much when it comes to raw data……..unless you’re trying to highlight a specific thought. I don’t think graphs tell much of a story unless accompanied by some good commentary. Graphs “add to” the data we read, but fall a distant 2nd by themselves.
So, as we while away the hours weaving some respite in between all our work, let your musical sides unleash their enormous potential, and perhaps we’ll have the genesis of the next, best, greatest informational platform to hit the world of real estate! We could call it the RSI (Russell Shaw Index), or the Berg Index, and it would replace all the mortgage and sales data we currently read. Ah, utopia is upon us………….and so is my first appointment. Guess I’ll turn my music down now.
Don – All I can say is, “You the Man!!”
Charts are a great tool for educating consumers. And the average consumer buying a house tries to do their homework. But what gets me is when they quote the UT and say that the market is bad due the statistics quoted there. What they don’t understand is that sometimes these statistics quote the National average and does not take into account the local markets that might actually be doing well. I love charts as tools. And I like the charts presented here.