From the monthly archives:

July 2007

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I have said it before. Redfin’s success, and the success of the countless other Refin-ish companies out there, will be their failure.

 The “who pays the commission” debate rages on over at the Bloodhound, as does the banter about divorcing the seller’s agent and buyer’s agent commissions. I won’t attempt to tackle the “who pays” subject this morning, at least not in a big way. I have gone on record many times as saying the seller pays. That is the reality. The seller establishes the total commission and the seller establishes the amount of the coop to the buyer’s agent.

The bigger issue I see is the issue of whose money the buyer-side commission is versus the perception of whose money it is. And it is this perception that what will drive us toward divorcing the buy- and sell-side agent paychecks.

I have already been received a mini brow beating this week for my unpopular comments on the role agents play in making a market, so I am on a roll. I might as well stoke the fire - If I am representing the buyer, the coop fee is my money. Period. And, what I choose to do with this money is my decision. If I am Redfin, I will choose to give 2/3rds of it to my client, if I am Buyside Realty, I will choose to give more. Most “traditional” agents will confess that there are many times they will choose to credit their client some amount due to repeat business, to close the gap at the contract negotiation stage, or even to resolve repair issues arising from the property inspection.

But, regardless of who pays, it is the agent’s money, at least at close of escrow, for services rendered. Russell Shaw said as much in this recent post (read between the lines), so maybe he will come to my defense when the friendly fire ensues. It is the agent’s money, and everyone wants a piece of it.

  1. Agent as Principal. This one is easy, and we get a lot of these. They can and will represent themselves. ”I live in (a land far, far away), and I am a licensed agent. I saw your listing on (pick your favorite search engine site). Can you let me in to see the home? And, oh, by the way, how much is the buyer’s agent commission?” Aside from the added hassle to the listing agent of having to provide access to the property and the fact that the out-of-area agent lacks the knowledge of the market, local disclosures, area practices and contracts, the Agent as Principal considers himself in a position to perform on his own behalf, and he will be “compensated” for those services to himself.
  2. Listing Agent Shopper. “I do not have an agent. If I let you represent me, how much will you give me?” Never do they say, “My commission is “x”. How much will I have to pay you?” In any event, it is the listing agent as potential buyer’s agent who has the choice to share his paycheck for buy-side services rendered, or not.
  3. Limited-Services Broker Client. “I do not have an agent. Can you show me the home?” Wait, this is the wrong topic. Okay, too many times the clients of the limited services model tend to initially lie to gain access, knowing that they are asking you to do the job for which their agent is going to be paid, and their agent has chosen to give them some portion of their commission. Most of us agree that the limited services agent will not truly, fully earn the commission, but their commission it is.

And then, there are the traditional agents who make the introduction and perform the traditional broker duties for and on the behalf of their clients. This is their job, one for which they will be paid. Some of these agents may choose to credit a portion of their paycheck to their clients in proportion to value they place on themselves, and sadly, too many seem to place very little value in their abilities, but it is their choice.

These traditional agents are the agents that are still involved in the majority of our transactions, but their numbers are diminishing. And here is why. All of the other folks I spoke of will accept a lower level of service because they perceive little risk in lesser representation. They expect, rightly so, that the listing agent will pick up the slack to ensure a successful transaction. The listing agent is increasingly being put in the position of accepting more work, more responsibility and more liability so that the buyer’s agent can give justify a business model centered on giving their own paycheck away. And the buyer’s agent is leaving the buyer with the perception that their money is somehow not really their own.

So, why may commissions ultimately be divorced and why might we just live to see a world in which the seller pays their agent and the buyer pays their own? Because each time a Redfin or the like climbs the popularity ladder, because with the success of each new listing agent shopper and discount seeker, one more nail is being driven into the coffin of the traditional buyer’s agent. When we have a world of people seeking money for nothing and a world of agents willing to deliver, the seller will have no reason to offer a coop.

Which brings me back to the wisdom of divorcing commissions and the future of the opportunists who aspire to feed on the buyer coop carrion. No coop means that buyers will finally be asked assign a value to the their representation. Buyer’s agents will finally have to demonstrate their value and earn their fee. And when the agents representing the buyers have nothing to give away but conversely have to place a price on their services and actually charge their clients directly, the associated accountability will only benefit the buyer… and the Redfins of this world will no longer have a shtick.

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I prepared some market trend graphs for a client this week. He asked for the trends, dating back to our approximate peak in the Summer of 2005, in an attempt to get a handle on the significance or not of seasonal influences in a market trending downward.

Until my friends at Altos can clean up the data for San Diego County, at which point I will go back to using their snappy real-time trend charts, I have reverted to pulling the data the old fashioned way - From our local Sandicor Multiple Listing Service. Altos Research admittedly has a better presentation plus their charts will ultimately save me an enormous amount of time, so hurry up guys! (I am assured that they are working on it).

First, for San Diego County:

You can see here that while time to sell declines slightly during the May/June months, the overall trend in market times is up.

This chart suggests that October/November are the lower price-per-square-foot months. I would argue that fewer discretionary sellers are typically listed during these holiday times, and motivation to “get it sold” might be more intense. Again, the chart suggests continued downward trending (no surprise here).

Finally, the number of homes sold from a strictly seasonal perspective will typically be less during January/February, according to this graph. Remember, “sold” in January/February means “off market” in November/December. From a broad brush viewpoint, the trend in number of homes sold continues slightly down as well.

Now for Scripps Ranch, keeping in mind that the sample size is much smaller and subject to greater fluctuation during any given month:

These numbers are all over the place, but seasonal trends seem to hold true for our local 92131 zip code.

Nothing new here, and the same overall down trend is evident.

Finally, we are seeing fewer and fewer buyers in Scripps Ranch. In combination with a growing inventory, this underscores that fact that selling a home today requires more effort, more expertise… and more patience.

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Reality Realty - TV Casting Calls

by Kris Berg on July 13, 2007

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Sure, I am a great agent. Sure, I am a devoted wife and mother. And, of course, I am a blogging phenomenon.

Well, that last one is a bit of a stretch, but at least I have left someone out there with the perception that one or two folks read our blog. On that note, I have to laugh that this week I find myself the darling of Reality TV, or at least it appears that HGTV and A&E have added me to their social network address book.

First, this from my new BFF Holly with My House is Worth What?:

HGTV’s My House is Worth What? is coming to your town!
Owning a home can be a great investment. And with the ups and downs of the current real estate
market, it may be worth your while to find out what your home may sell for in today’s market! Appear
on our television show My House is Worth What? and get a free evaluation of your home by the
experts and our host Kendra Todd, season 3 winner of The Apprentice.

They are looking for homeowners who have made or are contemplating improvements to their homes and are interested in the potential impact on their property’s value. What fun! Here’s your link

On a related note, the folks at Flip This House have asked that I plug their casting for the upcoming season.

813 Casting and Departure Films are conducting a nationwide search for the new cast of characters who will be featured on the upcoming season of Flip This House! Will it be your team?

We’re looking for confident, charismatic, motivated and opinionated people who “flip” residential properties for a living. We want real-estate adrenaline junkies who love the high risk, high reward nature of their jobs and who are devoted to doing a great job!

If you would like your team to be featured on the upcoming season of Flip This House, send an email to fth@813casting.com. Include your contact info, bios on you and your team, and some reasons why your team should be the next to be featured on Flip This House! Teams should consist of four or more people.

A&E is offering a $500 finder’s fee to anyone referring a future cast member. While I think anyone in San Diego who is in the house flipping business should really be applying to The Biggest Loser right now, I’ve done the math. If I am the procuring cause in 10,000 of you getting accepted for the show, I can retire. Tell them I sent you.

(In our next Reality Realty installment, I will share my post-semi-final interview rejection letter from the dudes at Survivor. A true story, I’m afraid).

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Ask the Brokers - How Rotten is Dry Rot?

by Kris Berg on July 4, 2007

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This in my email bucket this morning:

I had contract through Seller’s Relocation company “AS IS” with 10 days contingengency.

ISSUE: 1st PEST Control Service company found “dry rot” damages at DECK, Door Frame, another PEST control company found “dry rot” at Eaves under roofs of house today.

They all say they can fix it, but this is only 11 years old house in Sunny San Diego with less rain. Because they could not explain to me logically or clearly why Dry Rot is occurred on the particular area (any structural issue or moisture damage or leakage), I have concerns about any future breakout of Dry Rot… any further worry of honest disclosure when I sell this house to new buyer in the future… Disclosures reports did not say anything about DRY ROT, even though they tried to fix the DECK and cover DRY rot by paint. I did not remove contingencies yet. Today is 13 days from Sales acceptance. My wife does not like the house any more due to worries. 1. Is this Dry Rot common issue and OK to fix and live it? Also can I walk away and get the honest money back? Thank you.

First of all, dry rot is very common, even in Sunny San Diego. The Wood Destroying Pest and Organisms (Termite) inspection covers much more than termites; it covers all “wood destroying pests”, which includes fungus and dry rot. You need not live in monsoonal climate conditions to experience dry rot. Indeed, moisture is the culprit, but any degree of moisture over time in combination with untreated wood (or wood needing a fresh coat of paint) can result in the situation you have.

And, this IS NOT uncommon in San Diego. On the contrary, a home with no evidence of wood rot is the exception to the rule. It is very treatable. The affected wood is generally replaced and repainted - That’s it. Assuming the issue is dealt with, there should be no reason to worry about implications when the home is later sold.

A footnote about wood destroying pests: I have seen one-year new homes require tenting and extensive wood replacement and thirty-year old homes issued a full-clearance (clean bill of health). In the case of termites, those crafty little guys have wings. If your neighbors have them (particularly if you are proximate to older homes), there is a good chance you do… or will. In the case of wood rot, an owner’s maintenance schedule, the climate, and the exposure of the home all contribute.

For me, the presence of wood rot at the eaves and on a deck would not be considered a fatal flaw. These are treatable and, assuming you address the issues, you should be fine. We are involved with a home right now with an estimated wood/termite repair bill of almost $20,000. This has only concerned the buyers in the context of who will be picking up the tab, not in that the condition exists. As a side note, many buyers and sellers are surprised to find that termite fumigation is relatively affordable (generally $1500 - $1800) compared to wood replacement; it is the latter that starts to sting the pocketbook.

Regarding your earnest money deposit, it really depends on your contract language. We spoke about the earnest money deposit at length here, but in the context of the standard California Associaton of Realtor’s Purchase Agreement. Many (most) relocation companies use their own addendums, and many of these call for a “passive method” of contingency removal. In other words, if the time comes and goes and no one has spoken up (in writing), the contingency is deemed waived. You should carefully review your particular contract to determine whether the passive or active method applies.

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The Broker “Pitch” Session

by Steve Berg on July 4, 2007

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Is it a dinosaur or cutting edge marketing strategy?

For the civilians who have no idea what I’m talking about, let me explain.  In many communities (at least in San Diego), when a new listing is taken by an agent, one of the first things that happens is that the agent will schedule the home to be on a Broker Caravan, usually on a weekday where the home is open for 2-3 hours for previewing by agents who happen to work that community. 

Not unlike pastoral nomads on camels, wandering the desert in search of the next oasis, each week agents visit the new listings to get a better understanding of the property and determine whether they have a buyer who may be interested. It also serves to increase their market knowledge even if they don’t have a client for that particular home. The broker caravan is a time honored tradition that is , in fact, very valuable. My first one was in 1979 (when I was 12 years old).

But what typically precedes the broker caravan is the subject of this diatribe - The Pitch Session! This is a gathering of a few of the nomads/agents prior to the Caravan where new listings are pitched to, well, very few agents. The Pitch Session is mostly populated by hunters and gatherers: Vendors of all stripes including escrow and title rep’s, mortgage brokers, home inspectors, termite inspectors, etc. The hunters are anxiously working the crowd trying to establish relationships with the agents in hopes of new business. There are also sales managers there who may schmooz or try to gain the favor of agents with potential and recruit them away from their current office. The Pitch Session is social, but it’s also business. Unfortunately, almost none of the business is about selling the homes that are actually pitched. But the free bagels and coffee and juice are nice, all provided by the Hunters.

In the old days, the Pitch Session was extremely valuable as the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) consisted of a thickly bound book, published once a month. Agents had no way of knowing about new listings each week until the next monthly MLS book came out, that is, until the weekly Pitch Session was born.  

Today, of course, we are computerized and tech’ed out to the max. Buyers from all over the country, indeed the world, have the ability to know about new listings within days, if not hours. Professional agents, those who are actually searching regularly for their buyers may obtain new listing information almost simultaneously with it officially hitting the MLS and the market.

And, for the past decade, Scripps Ranch has not had a formal Pitch Session. New listings have been placed onto the Broker Open House schedule using (brace yourself) a computer! About a year ago, the Pitch Session was revived by (brace yourself again) a title company, and this was done under the auspices of the need to return to social networking in a more challenging market. More challenging for the agents or for the service providers? You make the call.

Kris and I are firmly of the belief that the Pitch Session is, in fact, a dinosaur. We rarely attend. So we were surprised to hear boatloads about it from the handful of other agents actually attended and who visited our newly listed homes on broker caravan (they visited even though we didn’t pitch it). “Didn’t see you at the pitch session this morning. I guess you’re really not interested in selling this home.” Excuse me!! I just don’t really want to be subjected to the misery of being feasted upon by hungry vendors while I try to have a bagel and a cup of coffee at 8:45 am. We have paid our dues, established a strong agent network and, bottom line, have the track record built up over years of success. I’m  not trying to sound like an elitist, but I think the Pitch Session is pretty much a worthless waste of time and does nothing, zero, nada to enhance our ability to sell a home. I think it’s time to feed the Pitch Session to the dinosaurs and get some transactions done.

But I welcome your comments. 

   

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Update on Miramar Lake Gates Reopening

by Kris Berg on July 1, 2007

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A place for everything and everything in its place. We haven’t formally announced our hyper-local, mostly non-real estate blog, but it is up and breathing. This new site, the Scripps Ranch Home Blog, seemed like the logical place to post our progress report this morning on the Miramar Lake path reopening across the dam, or as I now refer to it, the Mile of Mesh.

Read the update and see the photos here.

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