First, for this morning’s good news. We finally have our new photos, although we will all miss Steve’s mustache and my “June Cleaver” hairstyle. Also, the Zestimate on my home is up another $8,000, and I am already thinking of ways I might capitalize on my growing personal wealth. Who says our market isn’t strong?
Well, the stats, for one. Rather than clutter this post with a bunch of excel spreadsheets and dry data, I am providing links to a bunch of excel spreadsheets and dry data for those of you who care. I will speak to the single-family detached home market, although the numbers are similar for attached homes. San Diego County is sitting at an absorption rate of nearly 9 months, while the I-15 corridor communities of Scripps Ranch, Rancho Bernardo and Penasquitos have current absorption rates hovering around 6 months, with Mira Mesa at approximately 6.5 months and Poway at 7 months. This would suggest we are slightly on the far side of a normal market (and I am sure I will be hearing from our friend Jack Tong on that one). Looking at the trend lines, the market lost steam in July, which is historically the most active month from strictly a seasonal perspective. Fortunately the Feds held the line on interest rates yesterday, so we will have to wait and see where that leaves us as we head into Fall.






{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
I like the new pictures! You guys both look great!
Awe, shucks. Wasn’t hard to improve on the old pics!
Kris, Looks like we are well in a buyers market with 6 months being the line in the sand. It would be interesting how much that number changes by the end of the year.
Steve Roque
Okay, I see you took advantage of my time away backpacking in Yosemite to put together and import some fancy statistics. I’m very impressed. However, I still like my simple comparison of last months closings (in this case for Scripps Ranch) to the same month last year. So, in my own prehistoric format (all stat’s per SANDICOR):
Sales/Closed escrows for July 2006 = 25
Sales/Closed Escrows for July 2005 = 45
Difference = -45%
Sale Price/$ sq. ft. for July 2006 = $339
Sale Price/$ sq. ft. for July 2005 = $362
Difference = -6.5%
Interesting Note #1: The average sq. ft. of homes sold in July, 2005 was 2,305 sq. ft. while the average for 2006 was 2,623 sq. ft. (a 12% increase in size of home. This is an important offsetting factor (the “Costco” bulk purchase factor, if you will).
Interesting Note #2: The significant reduction in the # of sales should suggest a greater difference in the avg. sales price per foot. However, when you consider the “Costco Factor”, the difference is not that much. Hmmmm, very interesting. While sales are down, SALE PRICES are holding up better than what may be perceived by the buyer market. Jack T – are you catching this???